Whenever the US Men’s Soccer National Team (USMNT) underperforms, the reactions highlight two things. The first is the disproportional expectations to what is historically a perennial World Cup outfit1. The second is the impact of the athletics system on the professional performance. While the appropriateness of the expectations can be interesting to ponder, talent development is my sole focus here.
There is extensive research on athlete development2,3. It is generally accepted and the data bores out that early specialization leads to weaker results at performance levels. The Long-Term Athlete Development (LTAD) model is broadly applied to team sports and incorporates “age-appropriate” training4. There are multiple sample descriptions online both broad5, to the specific6,7. My preferred version is the World Rugby description, mostly because it incorporates the coaching roles succinctly.
| Stage | Age | Player | Coach | Content |
| Fun | 6-12 | Plays | Guides | Learning to move, basic skills |
| Development | 12-16 | Explores | Teaches | Learning the game |
| Participation | 15-18 | Focuses | Challenges | Developing the player |
| Preparation | 17-21 | Specializes | Facilitates | Reach full potential |
| Performance | 20+ | Innovates | Empowers | Consistent performance |
The LTAD fits quite well with the American school system. Before Middle School, all that is required is to get the kids active, learning about their bodies and basic skills. Around 6th grade progress shifts to developing skills in a given sport while rapidly building their physical abilities. This is also when tactics are introduced. When students reach High School, the idea of competition is introduced and position specialization are developed. In college and early professional career, each athlete trains towards full performance and later consistency becomes the only differentiator.
Part of the LTAD academic focus is on long term health, not only performance. Previously, I talked about how performance sports are antithetical to health8. This extra focus leads to concessions, particularly when it comes to adapting training schedules to properly compete in international settings.
Across the world9, soccer development is accelerated. While the general stages are present, the athletes enter each stage much earlier.
| Stage | Age across the world | Age in LTAD |
| Fun | 5 – 8 | 6 – 12 |
| Development | 8 – 12 | 12 – 16 |
| Participation | 10 – 14 | 15 – 18 |
| Preparation | 13 – 17 | 17 – 21 |
| Perfomance | 18+ | 20+ |
At some point between 6th and 10th grades, kids are sorted into prospects and general population. There is relatively no time where competition is unimportant and specialization is mostly set by the time athletes reach high school.
Game rules and adaptations for young players are also different10. Anecdotally, I was playing 11-a-side in a full field at age 6. Something that is discouraged in the US until age 10. Game lengths also progress faster internationally. At age 15, there is no difference between the game and the professional one. In the US, high schools don’t actually get to 2x45min periods.
What difference does an accelerated development calendar make? At a basic level, it means when an American player enters professional soccer 2-4 years older or with less competition experience than their international counter parts. By the time European clubs notice an American talent, he is already in their 20s and investing in them becomes questionable.
Here is where we must consider MLS NEXT. A league/program that aims to address some of these disparities11. It covers Under 13 to Under 19 teams and is structured as a national league, owned and managed by the MLS. Its main problem is the size. It has only 143 clubs and many states one or fewer clubs12. MLS NEXT is still new and its true impact will take another generation of players to be fully measured.
Let’s compare two American talents that went through the different processes and their career arcs: Folarin Balogun and Tyler Adams.
Balogun was born in 2001 and moved to England at age two. Adams was born in 1999 and remained in New York.
Balogun entered Arsenal’s academy at age 8, while Adams only joined Red Bull New York’s at age 12. In the U16 team, Balogun faced international competition (academies of Bayern Munich, Manchester United and Juventus for example). Adams was in the Red Bull U16 team facing other North American academies.
Out of the academy Balogun stayed in the Arsenal system in the U18 and U21 teams, with his debut for the main team coming at age 19 (he would only play six more game for Arsenal main squad in the next 2 years). He spent time in the Premier League 2 (a reserve league) before being loaned to Middlesbrough getting experience in the Championship (England’s second tier) and finally Reims where he played in Ligue 1 (France’s top league). In 2023, he moved to Monaco AS for €30 million.
Adams, on the other hand, went to Red Bull NY 2 for a year then moved to the main squad at age 17. In 2019, at age 20, he transferred to RB Leipzig, owned by the same group as Red Bull NY. Over the next 3 years, he played in 103 games in the Bundesliga, UEFA Champions League and Europa League. In 2022, he transferred to Leeds United for €17 million and the next year, after Leeds United as relegated, to AFC Bournemouth for €18 million.
This comparison could indicate either a slower hybrid approach through MLS academies (Adams) and the international early development (Balogun). Adams managed to be a teenaged professional, make it to Europe at age 20 and play competitive matches at a high level, but he is the exception. The UNMNT is heavily populated with dual citizens that were developed abroad. Players that moved to European youth academies are also present while, with the exception of goalkeepers13, only a couple touched college.
The impact of the developmental system on the players is huge. High level experience is currently coming in the USMNT and then players are stuck in reserve teams and/or weak rosters in Europe or in the MLS. Player transfer value and earnings are reduced and the results for the USMNT are logically low.
Other factors to consider are Talent and Player population. Talent seems an obvious factor, less talented players lead to lower results. However, population numbers would make it impossible for the US to not have talented athletes as there are in other sports. If anything, the development system fails mediocre talents by not maximizing their potential as fast as possible14. Soccer is not a dominant sport in American society. Generally athletic children are siphoned to basketball and football instead. This is an important factor, it reduces the possible universe but once again, a country this large, this populous and diverse has more than enough athletic boys for all sports.
US soccer needs to accelerate development and find kids earlier and in wider areas. MLS NEXT is a good start but it has to grow exponentially (in number of teams and towards earlier ages) if the USMNT wants to compete in World Cups. It is too late for it to generate results in the 2026 WC but the competition can be used to justify investment for success in the 2046 WC.
- The USMNT made it to exactly half of all WCs (11 out of 22), but has qualified to 9 of the last 10 and is guaranteed to participant on the next one as host. Only Brazil has made to every World Cup. ↩︎
- Nice summary and retrospective in this work. Lloyd, R.S. and Oliver, J.L: The Youth Physical Development Model: a new approach to long term athletic development. Strength and Conditioning Journal 34: 37-43, 2012 ↩︎
- A bit simpler write-up. Balyi, I. and Hamilton, A.: Long Term Athlete Development: Trainability in Childhood and Adolescence. National Coaching Institute, Victoria, British Columbia and Advanced Training and Performance Ltd., 2004 ↩︎
- Exceptions are made to sports that are dominated by young, possibly prepubescent, athletes i.e. gymnastics. ↩︎
- https://athletics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/LTAD_EN.pdf ↩︎
- https://passport.world.rugby/injury-prevention-and-risk-management/rugby-ready/long-term-player-development/ ↩︎
- https://usa.rugby/news/usa-rugby-releases-new-long-term-player-development-model ↩︎
- https://bigcatgod.com/2024/09/20/want-to/ ↩︎
- Considering countries in Latin America, Europe, and Africa. ↩︎
- Headers are another difference that frankly I am not sure what to do about. US Soccer has limitations on headers for children that I am not sure have been implemented elsewhere. ↩︎
- For example, in MLS NEXT, full matches start at U16. ↩︎
- Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Delaware, D.C., Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia, Wyoming ↩︎
- Goalkeepers develop later across the board and tend to peak closer to 30 rather early/mid 20s. ↩︎
- Mediocre talents developed in England for example have higher earning if shorter careers. ↩︎
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